You’re Ready to Start Winning at Texas Hold’em Poker
If you’re like me you want to be good at the things you spend time doing. With poker it makes a lot of sense to get better because the more skilled you are the more you will win in the long run. Ultimately, poker is a people game played with cards. By better understanding our opponents, we can make educated guesses about their likely holdings and how they will play them in various situations. Our ability to adjust to their style is what separates the good from the great. Sometimes you can do everything right and still lose in this game, that’s life. The key is to making the right decision in any given situation. Full disclosure, this requires some mathematical analysis. Don’t be discouraged, you can learn this, this is something within your control.
The Erasmus School of Economics (ESE). ESE ranks as one of the top institutions for their work in research and a reputation in economics, finance and management. The study is called, “Beyond Chance? The Persistence of Performance in Online Poker”, in which they reviewed a sample of hundreds of millions of online poker hands in which it was concluded that skill is an important factor for long term success.
This study states, “for optimal play in the long run, poker players generally need to apply the expected value criterion to every decision in the game”. I strongly agree with this finding, because with the right information, poker situations can be broken down into math problems and evaluated based on whether or not the decision will yield a profit in the long run. To do this, we need to understand outs, equity, and pot odds. A classic example is when a player is facing a bet while on a flush draw. We’re going to explore these concepts using this as a hand example, but first here are a few definitions and concepts.
Expected Value – Flush Draw Example
The “FLOP”
OPPONENT HAND
OUR HAND
OUTS:
There are 13 total spades in the deck, minus the 4 spades known in our hand and on the board give us 9 outs. We have only 4 to a suit, but drawing to just 1 more spade to make our flush.
Pot: 352
Bet: 100
EXPECTED VALUE EQUATION
Equity > Pot Odds = +EV
The math dictates that this is will be a profitable call in the long run because our equity is greater than the odds we’re getting to call. Anytime our equity is greater than the pot odds we’re getting, it is considered plus EV, that is a positive expected value.
EQUITY:
The number of outs is used to calculate the likelihood of making a hand based on the number of cards to come. The math requires dividing the number of outs by the remaining unknown cards, however we can use the shortcut rule of 4 and 2 where on the flop you multiply your outs times 4, and on the turn you multiply your outs times 2. In our example we multiply 9 outs x 4 = 36% equity.
POT ODDS:
This is the ratio of money in the pot compared to the bet you need to call. In this case we need to call 100 to win 352. Broken down to the lowest common denominator we’re at 3.5:1. This is significant because now we can convert this ratio into a percentage of roughly 23% pot odds.
36% Equity > 23% Pot Odds = +EV
Fold Equity & Winning Without Showdown
If you’re interested in increasing your win rate, and playing better poker, you must learn about fold equity (FE), and how to bluff successfully.The poker lingo for winning without having a hand is “winning pots without showdown”, or “non-showdown winnings”. Simply, this is when you bet at any point in the hand, and your opponent folds. You win the pot, and since nobody called, you can throw your hand face down in the muck. If your table image is tight, meaning your opponents perceive that you play fewer and mostly good hands, that will influence your ability to make players fold when you bet.
FE is an actual number that can be calculated; FE = % chance opponent folds x % equity gained (assuming fold). To break it down, the likelihood your opponent is to fold is an estimate based on your reads of their prior actions. The equity gained depends on your opponents pot equity before you made them fold. Don’t worry about the exact math at the table, but understanding this concept will help you play better poker. Here’s a common example:
GOOD SPOTS
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Abandoned pots – Nobody really has a hand or wants the pot. Everyone has given up and is checking down. If we check behind on the flop, and they check to us again on the turn, even a small bet will win frequently enough to show profit.
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PFR checks OOP – The preflop raiser (PFR) is out of position (OOP), and instead of a continuation bet (C-bet), they check. Most players are exploitable in this situation because they check-fold too much when we bet. Other players defend often enough, but too much with their weaker holdings.
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Expand 3-bet range IP – Don’t only 3-Bet really tight, loosen up your range in position (IP). When you’re on the button, and you know that your opponents are weak and fold on a lot of flop textures, a 3-Bet followed by a C-Bet is very profitable. This is what Tommy Angelo calls a “Bread + Butter” situation.
BAD SPOTS
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No FE when your stack is short – If your stack is short, then your opponent isn’t risking many chips and is likely to call. In tournaments, when the big stack has a 10x chip advantage it’s often right to call a short stacks ALL IN with any two cards.
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No FE when your opponent’s stack is short – When your opponent has a short stack, 10BB’s or less, they need to double up. This means they are more willing to risk elimination, widening their range, and looking for hands to go ALL IN with.
Board: 5d-8d-9h Pot: 1,000
Player |
Hand |
Position |
Stack |
Equity |
Our Hand |
AhTh |
Button |
5,500 |
35% |
Opp. Hand |
3c3s |
Big Blind |
5,000 |
65% |
With 2 overcards and only backdoor draws, we have a 35% chance of winning the hand if it goes to the river. This looks like a bad spot, however let’s say our opponent checks to us on the flop, we must also factor in our fold equity. In this particular case, there are 3 cards higher on board than your opponents. Facing a big bet isn’t going to make them very happy because it’s possible that you have them beat. They are going to fold more often than not.
Let’s say conservatively that this opponent folds 6/10 times when we bet in this situation. Because there is a 60% chance they fold, we can add that equity to the total value of our hand. However, we don’t add 60%, we add (60% x 65%(opponent’s pot equity)), which is 39%. So the actual equity evaluation of our hand goes from 35% to 74%. This is amazing, because our total hand value more than doubles in what looked like a losing situation.
If this is still confusing, don’t worry, we’re going to look at the hand using chip values. In the traditional sense of pot odds, with 35% equity of the 1,000 in the pot we are entitled to 350 chips, and our opponent deserves 650 chips. However if they were to fold even just 50% of the time in this spot, then they would send half of those 650 chips to us. This means that we get 325 of those chips, .5(650). We are now ahead, and winning 675 > 325 in total equity.
The biggest benefit to playing an aggressive style of poker is that you give yourself a chance to win the pot right now. It may seem scary or even reckless to bluff, but if you’re playing a solid range and maneuvering into the spots above, you’ll be just fine. Unless you are relying on poker to make a living, don’t worry about the exact numbers to calculate FE. Simply understanding these concepts and incorporating more aggressive lines will improve your game.
Managing Emotions and Staying Off of Tilt
Although there are many strategies to share, your ability to stay focused and calm important to your success. If you are nervous, it’s going to affect how you react when a player bets into you. Tilt is the poker terminology for being knocked off your game. It generally happens from a bad beat, annoying table talk, or some other outside factor. Here’s how this bad beat story goes.
I was playing good poker, pretty tight, but picking some spots to bluff. I was 2nd in chips in the tournament, and was just 2 spots away from the money. I pick up aces in early and decide to call. There are some over aggressive players behind me and I think they’ll raise. The chip leader makes a huge re-raise for half of his chips. I take a pause and make it seem like I’m contemplating what to do. I go ALL IN, and he snap calls with pocket fives. Perfect, we’re an 80% favorite to double up! Wham, 5 on the flop and we’re drawing to just 2 outs that don’t come…
Let me say, if you’ve played any amount of poker, I can almost guarantee you have a story that sounds eerily like that. But here’s the point, it may suck in the moment, but you have to realize that it’s part of the game. Although you’re a huge favorite to win, that still means that a percentage of the time, in this call 20% or 2/10 times we’re going to lose. I’m sharing this brief mindset section after the math portions purposely for this reason. If you take nothing else away it’s that sometimes you’re going to make the right decision and still lose. This is okay, it’s normal.
Remember, the best baseball players of all time, the Hall of Famers, only got a hit a little more than 3 out of 10 times. The best in the world only succeed at their goal 35% of the time. This means that 65% of the time they get out or “fail”. Don’t let short term results set you back. Keep on making thoughtful and logical decisions long enough and you’re guaranteed to come out ahead!
Additional Poker Training Resources
As you can tell we’re all about sharing useful information about poker, and helping players up their game! Texas Hold’em is said to take 15 minutes to learn, but a lifetime to master. No matter your level of poker experience, there is more to learn. If you’re ready for more insights, analysis, and breakthroughs in your game consider investing in some of these additional resources:
Alec Torelli Favorites
High Stakes Poker Pro, Alec Torelli, has neatly packaged the following resources to help you improve your game and win more often. Although, considered one of the best “Cash Game” poker players in the world, he has amassed over $3,000,000 of poker tournament winnings. Alec has coached hundreds of people to success, and gets his greatest joy by helping people accomplish all their goals, both on, and off the poker table.
The Quick Start Guide to Preflop Play
The Preflop Mastery Program was created to maximize your preflop play skills to win more money in any game you play in. It is the ultimate guide to mastering your preflop game for both cash game and tournament play.
Learn to isolate weaker players, exploit your opponents, optimal 3 betting strategy, and which hands to play from each and every position.
With a 12 part video series, 10 custom designed hand range charts and practical tips to implement this strategy into your own game, you’ll complete this program feeling confident and secure in your preflop play, giving you a competitive advantage over your opponents. Link to Quick Start Guide to Preflop Play
Four Steps to Beating Anyone at Poker
IN “THE FOUR STEPS TO BEATING ANYONE AT POKER” YOU WILL LEARN:
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How to hand read like a professional, allowing you to figure out exactly what your opponents have.
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How to become a feared player in the eyes of your opponent.
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How to win more money, crush the competition and move up in stakes.
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How to reduce variance, stop downswings and grow your bankroll.
Link to Four Steps to Beating Anyone at Poker
Jonathan Little Collection
Jonathan Little is a 2 time World Poker Tour (WPT) winner, WPT player of the year, author and coach. If you’re serious about improving your game, check out Jonathan’s videos below where you’ll get access to all of his best strategies and advice for playing winning poker.
Pinpointing and Exploiting Weak Opponents
Jonathan Little won a $44 buy-in 4-handed online tournament and cashed for $1470.00. In this video, Jonathan reviewed EVERY SINGLE HAND (506 hands in all) from this tournament, and gives you tips on how to pinpoint and exploit your weak opponents. Link to Exploiting Weaknesses
Live No Limit Hold’em Cash Games
In this 3-hour webinar, Jonathan Little teaches you his best cash game tips and strategies, and reviews actual hand examples from his own live cash game sessions. Link to Live Cash Games
WSOP Coaching Videos
Jonathan Little teaches you basically everything he knows to be successful at the WSOP. You’ll get over 10 hours of training videos where you’ll learn how to play deep stacked, how to play short stacked, and general tips for success. Link to WSOP Coaching
Extreme Video Vault
Get access to over 40 hours of 1-on-1 poker training from Jonathan Little as he coaches his students. Link to Extreme Vault